Articles / Insights & Guidance from our Leading Professionals

by Peter Mallouk, JD, MBA, CFP, President | January 2, 2017

Failed Predictions

Failed Predictions

2016 was yet another year that made prognosticators look silly. Here is just a fraction of the usual hysteria:

 

1) Jan 7 – “The stock market is off to its worst start to a year ever.” – USA Today

2) Jan 12 – “Sell everything…Oil will trade at $16 a barrel and stocks will fall 20%.” – RBS

3) Jan 13 – ‘I’m really concerned. We expect more victims ahead, including eventually safe-haven stocks.” – Douglas Ramsey, Leuthold Group

4) Jan 28 – “Time to put 30% of your assets in cash.” – Mohamed El-Erian

5) Feb 5 – “The world economy seems trapped in a death spiral.”  – Citi

6) Feb 15 – “Things haven’t gotten bad enough to get good again.” – CNBC

7) Feb 15 – “Don’t bother buying. It’s capital preservation time. Better to hold on and get a better moment.”  – Jim Cramer

8) Feb 29 – “Global funds flee stocks, raise bond holdings to five-year high as growth fears mount.” – Reuters

9) April 13 – “Stock funds posted outflows of $5.8 billion last week…..investor pessimism for U.S. stocks stems in part from low expectations.”  – Financial Advisor

10) May 18 – “This statistically significant death cross…could be the real deal. The first took place in 2001 and was followed by a 37% decline, while second pattern occurred in 2008 and preceded a 48% drop.”  – Intermarket Strategy

11) May 23 – “7 Unmistakable signs that a bear market is approaching.” – Jeff Reeeves, MarketWatch

12) July 5 – “Our year-end target remains 2,100, reflecting a potential 6-month return of 0.1. That represents a return of 2.74% for the whole year.” – Goldman Sachs

13) Aug 1 – “Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids…sell everything. Nothing here looks good.”  – Jeffrey Gundlach

14) Aug 31 – “We are on the edge of a cliff right now.” – Robert Kiyosaki, author Rich Dad, Poor Dad, while advising all his listeners to exit the market completely

15) Oct 12 – “ With the US stock market selling off aggressively on 11 October, we now issue a RED ALERT.” – Murray Gunn, Head of Technical Analysis, HSBC (Murray references his use of Elliott Wave Theory)

16) Nov 1 – “If Trump wins, we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market.” – Simon Johnson in Market Watch

Peter Mallouk is the President of Creative Planning, LLC. and its affiliated companies. Creative Planning provides comprehensive wealth management services to clients. These offerings include investment management, financial planning, charitable planning, retirement plan consulting, tax service and estate planning services.

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PETER MALLOUKPRESIDENT, CREATIVE PLANNING