Failed Predictions

By Peter Mallouk

Failed Predictions

2016 was yet another year that made prognosticators look silly. Here is just a fraction of the usual hysteria:


1) Jan 7 – “The stock market is off to its worst start to a year ever.” – USA Today

2) Jan 12 – “Sell everything…Oil will trade at $16 a barrel and stocks will fall 20%.” – RBS

3) Jan 13 – ‘I’m really concerned. We expect more victims ahead, including eventually safe-haven stocks.” – Douglas Ramsey, Leuthold Group

4) Jan 28 – “Time to put 30% of your assets in cash.” – Mohamed El-Erian

5) Feb 5 – “The world economy seems trapped in a death spiral.”  – Citi

6) Feb 15 – “Things haven’t gotten bad enough to get good again.” – CNBC

7) Feb 15 – “Don’t bother buying. It’s capital preservation time. Better to hold on and get a better moment.”  – Jim Cramer

8) Feb 29 – “Global funds flee stocks, raise bond holdings to five-year high as growth fears mount.” – Reuters

9) April 13 – “Stock funds posted outflows of $5.8 billion last week…..investor pessimism for U.S. stocks stems in part from low expectations.”  – Financial Advisor

10) May 18 – “This statistically significant death cross…could be the real deal. The first took place in 2001 and was followed by a 37% decline, while second pattern occurred in 2008 and preceded a 48% drop.”  – Intermarket Strategy

11) May 23 – “7 Unmistakable signs that a bear market is approaching.” – Jeff Reeeves, MarketWatch

12) July 5 – “Our year-end target remains 2,100, reflecting a potential 6-month return of 0.1. That represents a return of 2.74% for the whole year.” – Goldman Sachs

13) Aug 1 – “Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids…sell everything. Nothing here looks good.”  – Jeffrey Gundlach

14) Aug 31 – “We are on the edge of a cliff right now.” – Robert Kiyosaki, author Rich Dad, Poor Dad, while advising all his listeners to exit the market completely

15) Oct 12 – “ With the US stock market selling off aggressively on 11 October, we now issue a RED ALERT.” – Murray Gunn, Head of Technical Analysis, HSBC (Murray references his use of Elliott Wave Theory)

16) Nov 1 – “If Trump wins, we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market.” – Simon Johnson in Market Watch

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